Well, it took long enough, but beautiful fall foliage finally arrived to the four-state area.  I think this past weekend was probably our autumn peak for color.  The leaves are now falling from the trees in earnest, the time change back to “Standard Time” has occurred (meaning shorter evenings and longer nights – by the clock at least), and colder temps and frost are in the forecasts.

So what do the prognosticators and weather warlords predict for winter this year?  Obviously, lots of ice, snow, and cold weather can impact travel, so it’s a good idea to have some sense of what is expected for the winter season.  Let’s see what the internet blogs are saying:

• “thewinterforecast.com” states that Western Maryland will see 10% above average snowfall totals and 15% above average in the Baltimore/Washington corridor[1].
• The ‘Old Farmer’s Almanac’ predicts a slightly warmer than normal winter (but colder than last year) with higher snowfall than usual[2].
• The Atmospheric Environmental Research Group states that the Mid-Atlantic region should “bundle up for a cold winter”[3].

If you’re into folklore, it is said that “wooly bears” – the brown and black fuzzy caterpillars – are said to help forecast the weather.  According to legend, if the brown band is wide on the wooly bear, expect a mild winter, but if the brown band is narrow, prepare for a severe season (FYI – I’ve seen wooly bears with both wide and narrow bands so far this year, so that hasn’t helped me any).

So, will it be higher snowfall and cold temps or slightly warmer than last year?

Who’s right?

That’s the wonderful/frustrating thing about the weather – we won’t really know until it gets here!

[1] “The Winter Forecast”, http://thewinterforecast.com/maryland-winter-forecast-2016-17-baltimore-to-dc-gets-snowy/, Accessed 11/8/16

[2] “2017 Long Range Forecast for Hagerstown, MD”, http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/md/hagerstown, accessed 11/8/16

[3] “Winter Weather Forecast 2016 for Maryland”, http://patch.com/maryland/annapolis/winter-weather-forecast-2016-maryland-more-snow-cold-icymi, Accessed 11/8/16