While every sector of the economy took a hard hit due to the coronavirus, perhaps no industry took it on the chin harder in 2020 than the travel industry.  Airlines, hotels, theme parks, restaurants, and cruise lines were all hanging on for dear life this past year – some didn’t make it.  Hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost and entire geographic areas became ghost towns.  Can you imagine trying to make it in a beach town or in such cities as Orlando, FL last year?  I can’t even fathom what these folks have been through.

With the arrival of the COVID vaccines, things are looking brighter, both for the upcoming summer travel season and beyond.  While it’s still not time to shout “all clear” and start running around in public without a face covering (yet), the ramping up of the U.S and worldwide vaccine programs are putting more and more people in the “safe zone”.  At last count, health authorities were administering about 2 million doses of vaccine per day in the U.S., and about 130 million total doses have been given so far[1], inching the population ever closer to the magic condition known as “herd immunity” (estimates are anywhere from 50% – 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve this[2]), which would allow people to once again travel and vacation with confidence (and relative safety).

So just how bad was it last year?  The U.S Travel Association estimates that overall, travel spending dropped over 45% in 2020[3].  Air travel dropped over 62%, and international visitors dropped by an astounding 76% (due to travel restrictions and the global impact of the virus).  If these businesses wouldn’t have had January and February on their books last year, things would have been even worse than that.  Large Fortune 500 companies took massive revenue hits (AMC Theatres and the Walt Disney Company are prime examples).  Many small businesses (like restaurants and other travel-related services) just couldn’t weather the storm.

However; a rebound is in the works.  Air travel is picking up, dining restrictions and capacity limits are beginning to loosen, and the warmer weather is unleashing a lot of pent-up demand.  While 2021 will see some recovery (especially towards the 2^nd half), the travel industry is banking on 2022 to be a year of redemption.  The Travel Association forecast is estimating an uptick of over 23% in overall travel spending this year, with an additional 25% in 2022.  That translates to a 278 billion dollar increase in spending through the end of next year.  That means more and more folks in the travel and leisure sector can get back to work – although I’m sure their confidence in an industry that they thought was pretty resilient has been shaken to its core.  I mean, let’s be honest – if I would have told you in early 2019 that Disneyland would be closed for an entire year due to a pandemic you would have called me a mad man.

So, if you’re looking to vacation in 2021 and 2022, now is the time to get your bookings in.  Providers are offering some great deals on airfare and lodging (to entice traveler’s back), and even offering things like free booking changes and cancellations – right up to your scheduled travel dates.  It’s a buyer’s market.  Take some time to plan your long-awaited getaways now – before prices begin to rise back to their normal levels.  

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[1] “COVID-19:  US Vaccination Pace Increases to Two Million Doses a Day”, New York Times, March 4, 2021, accessed March 25, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/03/04/world/covid-19-coronavirus

[2] “How Much of the Population Will Need To Be Vaccinated Until The Pandemic Is Over?”, The Cleveland Clinic, January 23, 2021, accessed March 25, 2021,  https://health.clevelandclinic.org/how-much-of-the-population-will-need-to-be-vaccinated-until-the-pandemic-is-over/

[3] “U.S. Travel Forecast – 2020”, U.S. Travel Association’s Travel Forecast Model, Tourism Economics, Department of Labor, Department of Commerce, Accessed March 25, 2021, https://www.ustravel.org/system/files/media_root/document/Research_Travel-Forecast_Summary-Table.pdf