As we move nearer and nearer to the summer season, one of the many things that will have to fundamentally change (due to coronavirus) is the summer vacation.  Even though many states are starting to loosen restrictions on dining, shopping, and travel, there are many new guidelines related to social distancing, sanitization, and group size that will fundamentally alter “how” we travel for months (and maybe years) to come.

Will all of these changes be worth the hassle?  Better yet, will the general public even accept these new norms and guidelines?

Let’s just take one example – the coveted Disney vacation.

Disney has been hard-hit by the pandemic.  Worldwide, it has shuttered its parks and resorts, and its movie entertainment offerings have trickled down to zero.  This has had a serious impact on its overall financial health, as it was reported in their last earnings call that they have lost over one billion dollars due to the parks and resorts closures.  One billion dollars – for parks that have been closed for only about two months.

Shanghai Disneyland recently re-opened its gates, but with some serious restrictions.  First of all, they have limited capacity to 50% or less of maximum attendance.  Second, every guest must have their temperature taken at the front gate and show proof that they do not have the virus.  Then, facemasks are required throughout the park.  Once a family has passed all those hurdles – the real fun begins.  Six-foot spacing has to be observed in every attraction line (following the stamps and stickers placed on the concrete).  Spacing is even observed on the ride vehicles themselves.  For instance, a boat that normally seats approximately forty people on the ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ ride will now be limited to only ten people – all appropriately spaced on the boat itself.  Characters can only wave at children from a bus or parade vehicle.  Intricate stickers and lines will instruct patrons where to stand for a show or outdoor event – again, spacing out the crowd at prescribed distances.

All in all, it sounds like an exciting day of looking at your feet and worrying about those around you – not a day of enjoyment and fun. 

Let’s also consider a few more issues that will have to be taken into account.

One, these guidelines and restrictions are being tested at Shanghai Disneyland.  Not to make any generalizations here, but the Asian culture is well known for following directions and acting in an orderly and polite manner.  Even in that context, these requirements look hard to enforce and control.  Now imagine these same guidelines in the United States (at Disneyland or Walt Disney World).  Do you think for one minute that Vinnie from Newark, NJ or Joe-Bob from Burnt-Stick, AL are going to give a flying fig about what you tell them once they get inside the gates?  These guys want to throw down now at the gas station or the grocery store – can you imagine them at a theme park?  Cast members will be fighting with folks all day long about spacing, distancing – pretty much everything – because “I paid my money and by God, ‘Murica” – all spit at them in a profanity-laced tirade from a mask that is being worn under their nose (if at all).

Secondly, even at 50% capacity (or whatever is decided), Disney will lose money by operating the parks.  It takes lots and lots of employees to run these parks and resorts (Disney is actually largest single-site employers in the country, at last count employing over 75,000 people at their Florida property alone).  The fixed costs for running a theme park are also staggering – and constant – no matter if there are twenty guests or 50,000.  In other words, it costs the same to run that ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ ride whether the park is full or not.  Disney needs these spaces and offerings to be body-to-body in order to turn a profit.  So, they will be making financial decisions every day on what they will operate and run.  That means many of the attractions, restaurants, and shows may not be offered or shuttered – even though the parks are open – but patrons will probably pay the same ticket price to enter (ooh boy, won’t that be a fun conversation in Guest Relations?)

Lastly, yes, it’s a “Disney” vacation, but will it really be that “magical” with all of the restrictions and limitations in place?  I’d argue that it won’t be – so tourists may have second thoughts about making such a large expenditure and going in the first place – and I’m talking about Disney here.  There are hundreds of smaller, regional amusement parks and attractions that will be going through the same steps this summer as well.  Will they even survive?  Only time and money will tell.

Like 9-11 before it, this pandemic is radically and fundamentally altering our daily lives – with many changes likely to stick around for a long time.  2020 may be really be the year of the “stay-cation”, so get the covers off of those swimming pools, stock up on wood for the firepit, clean up that grill, and start learning to love the backyard.

We may all be there for a while.